All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

Worst rolling 10-year UST returns in US history = time to buy LT USTs?  Not on a real basis. (FFTT, 9/8/26)

The United States is not going to have a debt crisis as long as we keep issuing our debts in our own currency.  -Warren Buffett, 2011 We can guarantee cash benefits as far out and at whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing power. This is why the issue ultimately has to be resolved in terms of do we have the material goods and services that people will need to consume, not

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AI is driving a bond singularity before it drives an AI singularity (FFTT, 9/1/26)

Technological Singularity: A hypothetical future moment when artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence, triggering rapid, uncontrollable technological growth that fundamentally changes human civilization. Most users on Reddit agree that this concept borrows its name from physics because future outcomes become impossible to predict past that point.  – Google The pace of AI and robotics productivity gains are fundamentally incompatible with our debt-based monetary system, and too fast of AI and robotics productivity gains will drive a

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US government owes $3T a year in a hard currency it cannot print (and $100T+ overall) (FFTT, 8/25/26)

We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.   – Chairman of CEA (and soon-to-be Fed Chairman) Ben Bernanke, July 2005 As Michael Lewis recounts in The Big Short, the investor Michael Burry quoted

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