All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 6/24/22)

“High gas prices hit demand as drivers cut back at the pump” (Page 2) US Federal tax receipts fell 16% y/y in May (Page 3) “Lennar’s co-CEO cited the stock market selloff a few times when talking about buyer hesitancy and an uptick in canceled orders” (Page 5) One of the most underappreciated dynamics in the ongoing recession discussion (Page 8) “China’s holdings of USTs skid to 12-year low; Japan also cuts UST holdings” (Page

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Deflation arrives…in US Federal tax receipts (FFTT, 6/22/22)

A surprisingly large percentage of US income tax receipts are tied to a rise in US stock prices.  When the US stock market just stops rising … not falls, but just stops rising … that will put pressure on the receipt side of the US fiscal picture, which no one is talking about.-Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, 5/19/15 Maybe I’m in the black, maybe I’m on my knees, maybe I’m in the gap between the

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 6/17/22)

“The world’s most important market (USTs) has a big and repetitive problem” (Page 2) “MBS market went ‘no bid’ last Friday” (Page 4) “Powell: Fluctuations in commodity prices could take the possibility of a softish landing out of our hands” (Page 6) “OPEC says its oil output fell by 176,000 bpd in May, missing target for increase under OPEC+ deal” (Page 7) “Gazprom halts gas compressor, squeezing exports to Europe” (Page 8) “White House weighs

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US policymakers are “fighting the last war” – again (FFTT, 6/15/22)

We fought the last war.-Jason Furman, “How the Fed & Biden Admin Got Inflation Wrong”, WSJ, 6/13/22  The last 8 times the S&P 500 was down in a calendar year, Bonds finished the year up, cushioning the blow. Very different story thus far in 2022 with Stocks and Bonds both down over 10%, something we’ve never seen. 60/40 is down 14.8%, on pace for its worst year since 2008.– Charlie Bilello, via Twitter, 6/11/22 It

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 6/10/22)

“US Inflation unexpectedly hits 40-year high of 8.6%” (Page 2) “Since 1991, all 18 other governments with deficits >11% of GDP and debt/GDP >110% defaulted within two years.” (Page 3) “World economy is expected to experience its sharpest deceleration following an initial recovery in more than 80 years.” (Page 6) “US stocks will confront an earnings recession by the end of 2022” (Page 8) Revolving consumer credit rises more than expected (Page 10) “Bank economists

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Western policymakers appear to be panicking – are they realizing they are trapped? (FFTT, 6/8/22)

Although the U.S. government will remain solvent for the foreseeable future, it would be imprudent to allow the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise forever in an uncertain world. Trying to make this situation sustainable without adjusting fiscal policy or raising interest rates, as recommended by some advocates of modern monetary theory, is a recipe for hyperinflation.-Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, 1/28/19 The world economy is expected to experience its sharpest deceleration following an initial recovery

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