The only thing keeping the US government solvent was the very inflation the Fed has been fighting. -FFTT, numerous times since early 2022, most recently 11/17/23 The month of November saw the largest easing in financial conditions of any single month in the past four decades. -Goldman Sachs research, via EMH, 12/1/23 Key points:
Fed just touched off 3rd instance of UST market dysfunction in past 13 months; USD liquidity cometh. – FFTT, 10/17/23Last time the “Soros Imperial Dollar Cycle” drove the USD up and the US Insolvency Ratio as high as it is now, the USD was weakened significantly a short time later. – FFTT, 10/31/23Given the choice of “hurt the UST market and real economy” or “weaken the USD”, these three Treasury TBAC reports strongly suggest
PLEASE NOTE: WE WILL NOT BE PUBLISHING ANY REPORTS NEXT WEEK IN OBSERVANCE OF THANKSGIVING HERE IN THE US. Thank you!
Bottom line, the “tail” measures unanticipated UST demand shifts before auction; the larger the tail, the worse the auction. If we ever see a tail in the 4, 5, or 6bp range, this would be considered disastrous in the bond world and mean things are breaking in US Treasuries.– James Lavish, via X, 10/4/22 After some pretty blah auctions this week seen with the 3 yr and the 10 yr, today’s 30 yr auction was