All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

FFTT “Tree Rings”: The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (11/20/20)

“US equities are trading in the 100th percentile of its historical distribution over the past 40 years.” (page 2) “As government borrowing soars…even small shocks [will require] heavy Fed intervention.” (page 4) US October fiscal deficit the biggest on record, as “true interest expense” > 100% of tax receipts again (page 5) Four different Wall Street banks call for more QE within a 72-hour time span – quite a curious coincidence(page 6) US Equities adjusted

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Mr. X: “The Fed appears to be establishing the narratives they need to justify upsizing QE.” (11/19/20) Copy

Key quotes from this interview with “Mr. X”: “It is important to think of what’s happening in markets in two timeframes, and then try to gauge when there is a phase shift from the near-term narrative to the big picture reality.” “If there is a successful vaccine, the “buy industrials/cyclicals & commodities while selling bonds and gold” is the right trade.  On the other hand, if the second lockdown continues to worsen, “sell everything except

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Mr. X: “The Fed appears to be establishing the narratives they need to justify upsizing QE.” (11/19/20)

Key quotes from this interview with “Mr. X”: “It is important to think of what’s happening in markets in two timeframes, and then try to gauge when there is a phase shift from the near-term narrative to the big picture reality.” “If there is a successful vaccine, the “buy industrials/cyclicals & commodities while selling bonds and gold” is the right trade.  On the other hand, if the second lockdown continues to worsen, “sell everything except

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 11/13/20)

Why we think the Fed may be terrified of a successful COVID vaccine (page 2) “One of Biden’s new COVID task force doctors floats the idea of a new 4-6 week lockdown” (page 4) New daily COVID cases surge past prior two waves – Fed balance sheet size to follow in 3…2…1…? (page 5) “President-elect Joe Biden signals that he’s open to canceling student debt” (page 6) “Wilbur Ross says deficit will approach $3.5 trillion

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Vaccine-related bond yield spike likely pulls forward explicit Fed yield curve control: Buy the dip in gold, BTC. (FFTT, 11/12/20)

While it makes perfect sense to us that bond yields surged on the vaccine news (driving gold and BTC down sharply [along with some other “duration proxies” like tech stocks]), we think it is incredibly important that investors understand the context of this back-up in yields:  There has been no other cycle since 1946 with US debt/GDP as high as it is today, with interest rates as low as they are today, and with the

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FFTT: The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (11/6/20)

“McConnell cites ‘possibility’ next COVID aid package will help state and local governments” (page 2) Biden: “I will use the Defense Production Act to turn the tide on this epidemic.” (page 5) “Ready with the battle plan.” (page 8) “Bank of England expected to launch £100 billion of QE as lockdown 2.0 begins” (page 9) Fixing this chart requires a gold bubble (page 10) IMF Chief Economist: “The world is in a global liquidity trap;

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