“US consumer prices jump most since 2009, outpacing estimates.” (page 2) Former US Treasury official and current Biden economic advisor both say the Fed has already chosen “Inflation.”(page 3) “It’s been a long time since we’ve seen financial repression like this!” (page 5) “USD share of global FX reserves drops to 25-year low” (page 6) Stan Druckenmiller all but tells CNBC that US inflation will likely NOT be transitory (page 7) “NY Fed Markets desk

The Fed will have to monetize it. I believe it will have horrible implications for the dollar … it’s more likely than not within 15 years that we lose reserve currency status.-Stan Druckenmiller, on CNBC, 5/11/21 Last spring, in the midst of an equity market meltdown, and I’ve been trading for 40 years and I’ve never seen anything like this, right in the middle of an equity market meltdown, the bond market went down 18

“Yellen says rates may have to rise to stop economy from overheating” (page 2) “Yellen says she’s not predicting or recommending rates increase” (page 3) “Biden gets new opening to pitch economic agenda with weak US job growth” (page 5) “The job market isn’t weak; we have a wider bid-ask spread between labor and employers” (page 7) Who should Warren Buffett and Sam Zell believe on inflation – Janet Yellen and the Fed, or their

Key excerpt of the interview:   Mr. X: Once the Fed committed to ensuring the UST market “functioned” properly in 2020, in the presence of US debt/GDP this high, US deficits this high, foreign UST buying so low, and US Net International Investment Position (NIIP) this negative, the Fed unwittingly committed itself to an impossible Trilemma – it could have only two of the following three: Full employment. Low inflation. A functioning UST market. So,

Inflation picks up sharply (page 2) “Biden makes case to vastly expand government role” (page 5) “Biden forms pro-union task force to explore ways to help labor” (page 6) “Biden calls for the US to become more competitive against China” (page 8) “Fed to taper bond buying in 4q21, economists say” (page 10) Two hints from this week alone that Jerome Powell knows “this time is different v. the past 50 years” (page 13) “Russia

Key points: Consensus believes that the inflation the US economy is currently experiencing will be “transitory”; we’re not so sure.    Inflation won’t be “transitory” if the biggest economic actor in the US economy (the US government) continues running massive deficits, has a printing press, and remains willing to pay whatever prices are required to get the (mostly imported) goods the US government needs to function.  The only way US inflation will be “transitory” is