All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

The Warsh, Trump narrative that higher growth need not drive higher rates is wrong (FFTT, 6/9/26)

Take the “over” on how long it will take to reshore, and how inflationary it will be.  We keep hearing policymakers and investors say “We just need to go to a ‘wartime footing’ like we did in 1940”, but “We do not think that phrase means what they think it means.”  -FFTT, 11/11/25 edition of FFTT The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) report was a Rorschach test of sorts…the NSS was another fairy tale wish list

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Japan, Korea trading like EM’s with fiscal crises; China and gold trading like reserve currencies (FFTT, 6/2/26)

World Bank President Robert Zoellick, a former US Treasury official, calls for a system that “is likely to need to involve the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound and a renminbi that moves towards internationalization and then an open capital account.”  He adds: “The system should also consider employing gold as an international reference point of market expectations about inflation, deflation and future currency values.”      – Financial Times, 11/7/10 The gold market and

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What would Trump do if he KNEW he could not lose midterms and could therefore play for 2028? (FFTT, 5/26/26)

Tariffs are like sanctions. Why does the US impose sanctions? Because of our financial might and the widespread use of the US dollar…With tariffs, everyone wants access to the US market. What are we trying to do?  We are trying to make China rebalance. China over-manufactures and they deprive the household sector. They under-consume. If you push them to rebalance, then the identity of that is more US manufacturing.      – Scott Bessent, 10/17/24,

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