If China or the US do anything to drive or attract Chinese capital out of the US, for any reason, the [dynamics shown] above strongly suggest that the reaction will be a significant increase in the Fed’s balance sheet or some other form of USD liquidity loosening.  What could drive the Chinese capital out of the US, touching off a response from the Fed and/or Treasury that amounts to a significant injection of USD liquidity

The US isn’t fighting a war, a crisis or a recession. Yet the federal government is borrowing as if it were. Not including interest, the U.S. government will spend $1.21 for every $1.00 it collects in revenue this year. Add interest and that climbs to $1.39.      -WSJ, 9/16/24 Both Harris and Trump have promised to protect the biggest drivers of rising spending—Social Security and Medicare. And both want to extend trillions of dollars in tax

If you study Occidental, what you’ll find is they don’t really have exploration going on … Oxy [Occidental] basically has no speculative drilling going on. So, in effect, it looks like a CD. They’re clipping coupons.  What Oxy is doing is they have a huge gusher of cash flows coming out and that huge gusher of cash flows is only going into buybacks and dividends. It’s all being pumped out to shareholders – and Warren