The global economy will fall into recession or worse in 2022, thanks to high energy prices. Yet, no one seems to have noticed.  High coal, oil, and natural gas prices will bring about a prolonged global recession, if not a depression. To put this in context, oil prices would have to rise by $225 per barrel to have the same economic impact alone as that of the combined fuel cost increases. Fossil fuel use will be much

US NFIB Small Business survey says General Business Conditions are recessionary (Page 2) Economic data are nearing recessionary as commodities appear to be breaking out (Page 4) “Energy is being used as a weapon, UK Defense Secretary warns” (Page 6) “Shale drillers may spend more, but don’t expect a production bonanza, even at $80 oil” (Page 8) “Putin defends cryptocurrencies amid global regulation push” (Page 10) “Biden to press climate change agenda on Wall Street”

From 1946-1971, the USD was pegged to gold, first at $35 and then $42/oz.  In August 1971, that peg broke. From 1979-2004, the USD was “pseudo-pegged” to oil between $15-30/barrel– when oil got to $15, the Fed cut rates; when oil neared $30, the Fed hiked rates. “Peak Cheap Oil, Part 1” combined with Chinese oil demand and the Fed being forced to loosen policy into a commodity spike by the worsening subprime crisis caused

“Pandemic-related staffing fluctuations” = BLS-speak for “The Great Resignation”? (Page 2) “This supply chain and labor shortage needs to get fixed or we are in for a rude awakening.” (Page 4) Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3q21 real GDP estimate falls again to just 1.3% (Page 6) “Digging deeper, Atlanta Fed is now at -1% for Q3 real final sales.  Could be an early recession sign.” (Page 8) “Once is happenstance.  Twice is coincidence.  Three times is

Key points: We were recently interviewed on “The Investors’ Podcast”; the interview focused on a number of recent themes, including: Whether the Fed will Taper QE; The risks of contagion from China Evergrande; Peak Cheap Oil; The US fiscal situation; Investor perceptions of these topics.  We have “enhanced” this transcript with charts and articles to support the points we made in the interview.

10y UST yields are rising in this debt ceiling debate, unlike 2013 and 2011 (Page 2) “The Great Resignation” continues: “New York vaccine mandate prompts state of emergency decree” (Page 5) “Power crisis spreads to zinc markets as Trafigura cuts production” (Page 6) “My wife’s company produces components for military use, declared force majeure weeks ago, but their margins are up” (Page 7) “China orders energy companies to secure supplies for winter at all costs.”