All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

Long-term USTs are now trading like “risk-on” assets (FFTT, 12/5/23)

The only thing keeping the US government solvent was the very inflation the Fed has been fighting.     -FFTT, numerous times since early 2022, most recently 11/17/23 The month of November saw the largest easing in financial conditions of any single month in the past four decades.     -Goldman Sachs research, via EMH, 12/1/23 Key points:

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Was a “San Francisco Accord” to weaken the USD agreed to recently by Xi and Biden? (FFTT, 11/28/23)

Fed just touched off 3rd instance of UST market dysfunction in past 13 months; USD liquidity cometh.   – FFTT, 10/17/23Last time the “Soros Imperial Dollar Cycle” drove the USD up and the US Insolvency Ratio as high as it is now, the USD was weakened significantly a short time later.     – FFTT, 10/31/23Given the choice of “hurt the UST market and real economy” or “weaken the USD”, these three Treasury TBAC reports strongly suggest

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Exceedingly weak 30y UST auction suggests a much weaker USD will likely be pursued, soon (FFTT, 11/14/23)

Bottom line, the “tail” measures unanticipated UST demand shifts before auction; the larger the tail, the worse the auction.  If we ever see a tail in the 4, 5, or 6bp range, this would be considered disastrous in the bond world and mean things are breaking in US Treasuries.– James Lavish, via X, 10/4/22 After some pretty blah auctions this week seen with the 3 yr and the 10 yr, today’s 30 yr auction was

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