All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

Bond markets are standing in between powerful nations and what those nations need to do for their electorates (FFTT, 4/15/21)

For the first time in a long time, bond markets are standing in between these powerful nations and what they need to do for their domestic electorates around the world. -FFTT, April 1, 2021 Bruening was cornered in a political arena where he could not fight with full force. If he supported the abolishment of reparations, he would unsettle foreign investors. If he fought against the popular campaign for an end of reparations, he was

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 4/9/21)

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote a tweet thread that made us stop and say “Whoa!” (page 2) President Biden: “Wall Street didn’t build this country – the great American middle class did.” (page 7) Sec. Yellen: “President Biden and I want to change the game.” (page 8) US “Jobs Plan” contains details on Corporate Tax reform proposals (page 9) Former US Treasury economist has “Nominal GDP targeting” mugs made (page 11) “Yellen tells world’s big

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Treasury Secretary Yellen invokes 1944 Bretton Woods meeting and “equality” in laying out a US economic plan designed to “change the game.” (FFTT, 4/8/21)

As I prepare to meet my colleagues from around the world this week at the IMF & World Bank Spring Meetings, I find myself thinking back to the policymakers who gathered in Bretton Woods a year before I was born to define our post-war order. Though it was a different time, I empathize with the enormous weight they faced. Our current juncture is no less significant—what we do in the coming months will have profound

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 4/2/21)

“The Fed had the power to abort the inflation 15 years ago, or at any later point…” (page 2) “Combined price tag of Pres. Biden’s infrastructure plans could top $4 trillion” (page 3) “The thing is, Eisenhower started with a 1.7% deficit ratio, not 20%, and a debt ratio of 70%, not 120%” (page 4) “USD’s share of global FX reserves declines to a 25-year low” (page 6) “Yields are not rising badly but the

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The single biggest misperception in markets today (in our view.) (FFTT, 4/1/21)

Key points: In our view, the biggest misperception in markets today is the apparent belief that nominal US GDP will only grow far in excess of 10y UST yields for 1-2 quarters; signs increasingly suggest that dynamic may last much longer, driven by what we are calling “serial stimulus packages.” Recent Biden Administration stimulus packages and additional stimulus proposals may have begun awakening the bond market to this possibility.

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 3/26/21)

“FDR and LBJ may turn out to be the past century’s closest analogues for the Biden era…” (page 2) “Biden tests the limits of America’s Asian bankers” (page 3) “I am pleased to report that demand for the 7y UST auction was only the fourth-worst on record” (page 5) Turkey’s “policy dilemma” is the same policy dilemma the US has (page 6) US foreign policy narrative on China has gotten notably more hawkish recently (page

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