All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

Markets beginning to price-in that Fed and Treasury are nearly cornered (FFTT, 4/16/24)

For the moment, the only thing the convexity of net effective UST supply is good for is the USD.  Even gold and BTC will likely be sold.  In the not-too-distant future, UST yields will hit a rate that make it obvious to Mr. Market that the US government will default on its debt or Entitlements if the Fed does not engage in QE, YCC, or its functional equivalent.  Then gold, BTC, and likely oil will

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Yellen announces end of a 40-yr US economic orthodoxy on “free trade” and “a strong USD” (FFTT, 4/9/24)

The message will also mark an evolution for Yellen—and the end of a bygone era in U.S. economic thinking about China. Like other economists of her generation, Yellen, 77 years old, said the surge in Chinese exports at the start of the 21st century had seemed like a positive development, providing low-cost goods to global consumers. But the inexpensive exports also helped hollow out the U.S. manufacturing base in what became known as the China shock,

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Rising 10y UST yield and oil above $85 will “break stuff” again…& then trigger more USD liquidity (FFTT, 4/2/24)

Four highly destabilizing things just happened in a brief period of time: Oil prices rose sharply in July; the Bank of Japan widened out its Yield Curve Control tolerance band to 1%; the US Treasury upsized borrowing estimates for calendar 2H23 to $1.85 trillion; Fitch downgraded the US government’s credit rating to AA+.  Of the four factors above, only the BOJ move should be a surprise to FFTT readers; all four essentially act to increase

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