Change of a long term or secular nature is usually gradual enough that it is obscured by the noise caused by short-term volatility. By the time secular trends are even acknowledged by the majority, they are generally obvious and mature.  In the early stages of a new secular paradigm, most are conditioned to hear only the short-term noise they have been conditioned to respond to by the prior existing secular condition.  Moreover, in a shift

Politicians, like generals, have a tendency to fight the last war.     -John Bolton Unlike in 2008, the “little people” hold fixed-rate mortgages, and their cash holdings are fully insured by the government. It is institutional money that bears interest rate and bank solvency risk.  Bernanke observed after the 2008 panic, “If one bank is having problems, people at the bank next door might begin to worry about problems in their bank. And so, a bank

Treasury has an opportunity to force an early QT taper. Fed officials have pointed to repo rates and RRP levels for timing the taper, but those are directly impacted by bill supply. Further raising bill share would drain the RRP and push up all short rates.     -Former NY Fed Trader Joseph Wang, via X, 1/29/24 During the January – March 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $760B in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash