Today is one of the biggest gaps between perception and reality we can recall ever seeing in our 30-year career in investment research: Most likely policy options/paths forward from here based on what we know today:

We’re experiencing the largest loss of oil supply in history (3x bigger than 1973 Arab oil embargo). The level of complacency to me is staggering. Prior playbooks do not apply!     -Energy analyst Eric Nuttall, via X, 3/5/26 A ceasefire is not on the Iranians’ agenda right now. A ceasefire may come after we’ve imposed costs high enough that the Americans don’t willy-nilly attack us again…One huge problem with American decision-making is that it really takes

Key points: Mr. X: Based on what I am hearing from reliable sources, I do not think this is going to be a short war.  Yet almost everything I read from western media, western financial analysts, and western policymakers suggests it is going to be a short war. FFTT: Yikes…if you are right, investors are NOT positioned for that. Mr. X: No, they are not…and not only that, the longer this war goes on, the