Many important stories are hiding “in the open.”– Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour Hersh Events can move from the impossible to the inevitable without stopping at the probable.-Alexis de Tocqueville We’re also at a unique moment geopolitically, and I could see in the next few years that we are going to have to have some kind of a grand global economic reordering, something on the equivalent of a new Bretton Woods or if you want

…if global real interest rates returned tomorrow to their historical average of roughly 2%, given the existing level of US government debt and large continuing projected deficits, the US would likely experience an immediate fiscal dominance problem.– Charles Calomiris, St. Louis Fed white paper, 6/2/23 …suppose that the demand for government bonds implies an interest rate on bonds greater than the economy’s rate of growth. Then, if the fiscal authority runs deficits, the monetary authority

Federal Reserve defies Donald Trump with first rate rise since 2023  -Financial Times, 9/16/26 Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane. Independence is a 2-way street.  We let people that do trade policy and fiscal policy stay in their lane too.  -Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, 9/16/26 …Warsh said as he raised fiscal expenditures by $50B over the next year [with his 25-basis point rate hike.]  -Mike Green, via