NASDAQ/EAFE ratio v. DXY has diverged (Page 2) US headline CPI y/y looks set to fall sharply within the next 6 months (Page 5) “Foreign holdings of USTs hit record high in November” (Page 8) Big-time investors continue to ignore the US fiscal situation in their rate hike analyses (Page 12) “China cuts policy interest rate for first time since April 2020” (Page 14) US oil consumption as a % of GDP nearing levels that
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US oil consumption as % of GDP nears level that has spurred recessions for the past 50 years (FFTT, 1/19/22)
The global economy will fall into recession or worse in 2022, thanks to high energy prices. Yet, no one seems to have noticed. High coal, oil, and natural gas prices will bring about a prolonged global recession, if not a depression. To put this in context, oil prices would have to rise by $225 per barrel to have the same economic impact alone as that of the combined fuel cost increases. Fossil fuel use will be much
“USD’s once-solid link to higher bond yields is breaking down” (Page 2) How much downside could the USD have if it trades more off of capital flows instead of relative interest rates? (Page 6) “Bullish hedge fund bets on the USD hit the highest since June 2019” (Page 8) “…the Biden Administration is for the 1st time since Jimmy Carter asking the Fed to get more hawkish.” (Page 10) Fed’s Brainard, Mester both make enormous