“POWELL: AT NEXT MEETING WE WILL DISCUSS ACCELERATING QE TAPER BY A FEW MONTHS” (Page 2) “The poisoned chalice of the Fed chair job” (Page 4) The US fiscal crisis, “all in the open” (Page 5) “This is a big one – no its not clickbait” – Jeff Snider, Alhambra (Page 6) Emerging markets sovereign CDS index has just broken out to 2021 highs (Page 8) “The selloff in top-rated US corporate bonds continues –
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Key Points: US Federal debt of 125% of GDP requires high nominal GDP growth for an extended time to de-lever so the Fed can normalize policy without blowing up markets and the global economy. Global infrastructure cannot handle that high level of GDP growth without causing high inflation (see the last 12-18 months.) Physical resource constraints cannot handle the high level of GDP growth without causing high commodity inflation either (i.e., Peak Cheap Oil and
From “Is Inflation Dead?” to “It’s back. Inflation – the FEAR is real, but maybe the MONSTER isn’t?” (Page 2) “Sunday political shows: Biden officials craft inflation message” (Page 3) “For the inflation surge to be permanent, one has to believe the 25-year deflationary trend in durable goods is suddenly over” (Page 6) “Power shortages, a hidden water crisis, and a hard landing in China” (Page 7) “China’s factory inflation grows at record 13.5% in