“The old build, build, build playbook does not work anymore [for China]…it is actually getting dangerous.” (Page 2) “Evergrande woes hit Japan’s toilet, air-conditioner, and paint manufacturers” (Page 4) “There’s a huge drop in domestic sales of excavators in China – down 31% y/y in August” (Page 5) “Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment could be at least 6% in 2022” (Page 6) “Mentions of the word ‘shortage’ in Fed’s Beige Book hit highest level
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FFTT, LLC launched in 2014 with one goal in mind – to marry our unique dot-connecting abilities with our in-depth analytical work and our relevant historical perspectives to create differentiated, money-making insights that help our clients’ investment process and investment outcomes.
1997 suggests elevated risk of Evergrande contagion; US fiscal position means low Fed tolerance for contagion (FFTT, 9/22/21)
For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries has reached 60% of US GDP. Neither Wilhelmine Germany during the First World War, the combined might of Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany during the Second World War, nor the Soviet Union at the height of its economic power ever crossed this threshold. And yet, this is a milestone that China itself quietly reached as early as 2014. -Rush Doshi, “The Long Game”,
Latest Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) quarterly report contains some critically-important data (Page 2) “Only twice – and only briefly – have UST yields fallen this far below core CPI” (Page 4) “For the Fed, inflation doesn’t matter for now” (Page 6) “Consumer Price Index for August shows a lower-than-expected rise” (Page 9) “BTC golden cross (50-day moving average rises back above 200-day moving average)” (Page 10) “Gold rises sharply in nominal terms when real