“The Fed needs to break the market.” (Page 2) Trailing 12-mma Foreign Private UST Bond and Note Purchases hit 40-year highs (Page 3) “Japan intervenes to prop up JPY for first time in 24 years” (Page 4) “It’s feeling a little disorderly in the UST market” (Page 8) “LQD (high-yield bond ETF) is back to the COVID lows (though a lot of this is due to duration.)” (Page 9) “California sees warning sign from weak

A major crisis will likely follow if the Fed does not follow the BOJ in loosening policy.-FFTT, 4/20/22 Why we think the Fed will stop tightening by the end of 3q22-FFTT, 4/27/22 edition of FFTT The crescendo of what we have been calling “the scariest macro environment in our 27-year career” for the past 5 months is looking highly likely to arrive in September and into 4q 2022.  The EU (and likely the UK and

“Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the US.” (Page 2) European terms of trade collapsing despite sharply weakening EUR (Page 4) “US shale bosses tell Europe: ‘There’s no bailout coming.’” (Page 5) “These 15 data points are the latest amongst various others that support the shale quality degradation thesis.” (Page 6) “EU countries would be required to curb their power use by 5% during the