“Bitcoin is unlike any other bubble we’ve seen so far” (page 2) “December jobs report – recovery goes into reverse” (page 5) “Atop the powerful Senate Budget Committee at last, Bernie Sanders wants to go big” (page 7) “Fed officials see strong US rebound, fanning talk of taper” (page 9) “Criticism of the Fed is growing” (page 10) Capital flight out of the USD appears to be driving breakouts in EU, Chinese, and Emerging Market
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USD and volatility are likely to rise until something breaks as the US moves to defend USD system (FFTT 1/11/21)
UST supply/demand mismatch means the Fed finds itself facing the same choice it did in summer 2019: Cede control over the price of money or cede control over the quantity of money (i.e., grow the Fed’s balance sheet faster.) Ultimately, the Fed’s only politically-palatable choice is “grow the Fed’s balance sheet faster”, but in the near term, the Fed probably wouldn’t mind taking some froth out of markets first. Further supporting this line of thinking
“China has set its sights on the US bond market, which showed new vulnerability last year.” (page 2) Three photos from this week that suggest any type of US austerity or rate hikes are politically untenable (page 4) Trailing 12-month US Treasury Receipts have begun falling again, suggesting the recovery has stalled out (page 6) The case for a sharp near-term USD rally in a nutshell (page 8) Legendary healthcare investor says “COVID new case