All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

Negative 10y UST term premiums today are akin to AAA-rated subprime MBS circa 2005 (FFTT, 3/5/24)

Common sense holds that investors should get paid more for taking more risk. This tends to be true in the bond market: The further you extend the maturity of bonds you hold, the more uncertainty you are underwriting and the more you should get compensated… Currently, the U.S. bond market doesn’t follow this logic. The yield curve is inverted, with cash yielding more than longer-dated bonds. The odds are that this trend will not continue.    

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“Bond market is starting to crack” may now be a bullish catalyst for stocks (FFTT, 2/27/24)

Change of a long term or secular nature is usually gradual enough that it is obscured by the noise caused by short-term volatility. By the time secular trends are even acknowledged by the majority, they are generally obvious and mature.  In the early stages of a new secular paradigm, most are conditioned to hear only the short-term noise they have been conditioned to respond to by the prior existing secular condition.  Moreover, in a shift

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Compounding interest is undefeated v. empires (FFTT, 2/20/24)

What would America look like if it lost World War III?     -Niall Ferguson, 2/11/24 Much of Beijing’s current strategy toward the US was first laid down around 2002, when CCP leadership concluded that China faced an unprecedented 20-year “period of strategic opportunity.” During this time…China would have a long period when the “war on terror” would distract US leaders from China’s rise. … Chinese leadership concluded that this “period of strategic opportunity” would continue through

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