The yield curve needs to be pegged, full stop.  Overtly or behind curtains.-Veteran macro hedge fund trader “DC”, 2/6/22 My friend, debt is the very essence of fiat.  As debt defaults, fiat is destroyed.  This is where all these deflationists get their direction.  Not seeing that hyperinflation is the process of saving debt at all costs, even buying it outright for cash.  Deflation is impossible in today’s dollar terms because policy will allow the printing

“China shows its ‘Trump’ card” (Page 2) “Barring an economic downturn, supply chain chaos and port gridlock could drag on into 2023” (Page 5) Wall Street and prestige financial media are extremely confident the Fed is going to hike rates a lot this year (Page 7) “Fed’s Bullard: We don’t want to disrupt markets but we also need to keep inflation under control” (Page 10) US Treasury increases projected 1q22 UST issuance by 53% v.

The world is undergoing profound changes of a scale unseen in a century, with an increase in destabilizing factors and uncertainties, disruption to international security and order, and challenges and threats to world peace. The status and role of fair, reasonable, and non-discriminatory export control measures is growing in importance as an effective means to address international and regional security risks and challenges and safeguard world peace and development. All countries pay close attention to

As it relates to Fed tightening, most investors continue to completely ignore the US fiscal and debt situation (Page 2) “11.7% nominal GDP growth in 2021” … “the biggest policy success since at least WW2, maybe ever” (Page 5) Fed tightening = US Balance of Payments “Vicious Cycle” being re-engaged (Page 7) “There may be no winners from a stronger USD.” – Bank of International Settlements (Page 8) Two leading indicators point toward a recessionary

Key points: Six different factors, when taken together, strongly suggest to us that the US is likely to have a severe recession in 2022 unless the Fed relents and reverses on rate hikes & QT, soon. US oil consumption as a % of GDP is nearing levels that have historically triggered US recessions. US fiscal drag could pose a 3-9% headwind to US GDP. CPI normalizing could cut US nominal GDP growth by 7% over

NASDAQ/EAFE ratio v. DXY has diverged (Page 2) US headline CPI y/y looks set to fall sharply within the next 6 months (Page 5) “Foreign holdings of USTs hit record high in November” (Page 8) Big-time investors continue to ignore the US fiscal situation in their rate hike analyses (Page 12) “China cuts policy interest rate for first time since April 2020” (Page 14) US oil consumption as a % of GDP nearing levels that