All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

What is Putin’s (and Xi’s) grand strategy? (FFTT, 2/28/22)

40 years of globalization, disinflation and a bond bull market (on a real basis) likely died on Wednesday night.  Pax Americana likely ended on Wednesday night.  A global marking-to-market of global relative power levels appears to be happening before our eyes.  The multi-currency, multi-polar world was likely fully born on Wednesday night. -FFTT comment to an investor with 40+ years of experience, Friday night (2/25/22) Key points:Over this weekend, clients have asked us numerous times what

Read More »

The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 2/25/22)

“FED’S MESTER SAYS UKRAINE EVENTS COULD INFLUENCE THE PACE OF REMOVAL OF ACCOMMODATION” (Page 2) “Tonight we are taking a big step closer to the Fed being forced to reverse course…” (Page 3) Boris Johnson v. President Obama on using SWIFT sanctions v. a major energy exporter (Page 4) US government appears almost scared to sanction Russian energy (Page 6) “Chinese state banks restrict financing for Russian commodities” (Page 8) “The Russians will run out

Read More »

Mr. X: “Investors are wildly underestimating Russian leverage in the evolving ‘non-kinetic war’” (FFTT, 2/23/22)

For America the chief prize is Eurasia…About 75% of the world’s people live in Eurasia, and most of the world’s physical wealth is there as well, including about 75% of the world’s known energy resources…The Eurasian Balkans are infinitely more important as a potential economic prize: an enormous concentration of natural gas and oil reserves is located in the region, in addition to important minerals, including gold.  Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a

Read More »

The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 2/18/22)

US sequential GDP growth forecasts, S&P 500 earnings guidance both slowing dramatically (Page 2) “I cannot recall a flattening of the yield curve BEFORE the first interest rate hike by the Fed” (Page 6) A symptom of exactly how US deficits “matter” again, hiding in plain sight (Page 10) “Treasury market liquidity is eroding with Fed’s course a gamble” (Page 13) “Bond funds lurk as a challenge to Federal Reserve’s inflation fight” (Page 14) “In

Read More »

The Fed has begun making the same policy mistake after the war on COVID that the BOE did after WW1 (FFTT, 2/16/22)

Referring to the virus as the “enemy” and the fight as a “war against an invisible enemy,” Trump said, “One day we’ll be standing up here and say, ‘Well, we won.’ And we’re going to say that, as sure as you’re sitting there, we’re going to win.”-ABC News, 3/17/20 This is a war, and we need to win this war and we need to spend what it takes to win the war.  We are sensitive

Read More »

The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 2/11/22)

Wall Street continues to ignore the elephant in the room: Western sovereign debt (Page 2) Global negative-yielding debt totals collapsed last week (Page 6) “BOJ steps in to curb rising yields, to buy unlimited 10-year JGBs (Japanese Government Bonds)” (Page 9) Potential good news on US supply chains… (Page 10) …as long as the US State Department does not do something to make US supply chains far worse (which they just did) (Page 11) “Goldman

Read More »