The amount of rate hikes or demand destruction needed to stop inflation will bankrupt most sovereigns.       –FFTT, 6/9/22 Powell’s choice is NOT “inflation or deflation”, but rather, “How does he want to lose the long end of the UST curve – via rate hikes, or via rate cuts?”        – FFTT, via X, 2/2/24 And since he can prevent any loss of control over yields via QE and “programs”, the second order

If the nation is engaged in a shooting war and government does not want to increase taxes enough to pay for it, is it likely that the Fed will keep the money supply growing at a sedate 3% annual rate and watch interest rates move to banana republic levels as the credit markets are destroyed?  -Gary Shilling and Kiril Sokoloff, “Is Inflation Ending? Are You Ready?”, p. 14, 1983 We have a deficit [of oil]

Right now, the future is difficult to see, and the risks to both sides of our mandate have increased. -NY Fed President John Williams, 5/4/26 Chevron Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth said on Monday that ​physical shortages in oil supply would begin appearing around ‌the world because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global crude supply passes.  Economies will begin shrinking, first in Asia, as ​demand adjusts to reduced supply