All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

Saudi and China warn systemic inflation is coming. Fed rate hikes may make it worse. (FFTT, 12/15/21)

Annual oil investment must rise 54% to $525 billion per year to avoid supply crunch-Moody’s, IHS Markit, 12/8/21 Saudi Arabia said global oil production could drop 30% by the end of the decade due to falling investment in fossil fuels.-Bloomberg, 12/13/21 For the first time in more than a decade, iPhone and iPad assembly was halted for several days due to supply chain constraints and restrictions on the use of power in China, multiple sources

Read More »

The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 12/10/21)

Additional USD liquidity metrics begin flashing yellow (Page 2) “Strongest economy I’ve ever seen…a marvel to behold” – Jim Cramer (Page 4) “The US Treasury market is a dangerous place to dream” (Page 6) “Beijing reins in China’s Central Bank” (Page 9) Probability of 3 Fed hikes in 2022 rises to 96% (Page 11) “Annual oil investment must rise 54% to $525 billion per year to avoid supply crunch” (Page 12) “Unexpected power restrictions” contribute

Read More »

Mr. X: I’m surprised how quickly Fed hawkishness & USD strength has begun triggering warning signs. (FFTT, 12/8/21)

Key Excerpts from this conversation with “Mr. X”: Mr. X: I think we’re already seeing a number of signs that USD liquidity has already begun getting “too tight”, which is surprising to me, because the Fed really hasn’t even started tightening yet.  There have been a number of indicators, but the one that finally pushed me to pick up the phone and call is the Eurodollar futures inversion highlighted by Jeff Snider last week. These

Read More »

The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 12/3/21)

“POWELL: AT NEXT MEETING WE WILL DISCUSS ACCELERATING QE TAPER BY A FEW MONTHS” (Page 2) “The poisoned chalice of the Fed chair job” (Page 4) The US fiscal crisis, “all in the open” (Page 5) “This is a big one – no its not clickbait” – Jeff Snider, Alhambra (Page 6) Emerging markets sovereign CDS index has just broken out to 2021 highs (Page 8) “The selloff in top-rated US corporate bonds continues –

Read More »

Expect more volatility until the Fed and markets understand the underlying dilemma. (FFTT, 12/1/21)

Key Points: US Federal debt of 125% of GDP requires high nominal GDP growth for an extended time to de-lever so the Fed can normalize policy without blowing up markets and the global economy. Global infrastructure cannot handle that high level of GDP growth without causing high inflation (see the last 12-18 months.) Physical resource constraints cannot handle the high level of GDP growth without causing high commodity inflation either (i.e., Peak Cheap Oil and

Read More »

The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 11/19/21)

From “Is Inflation Dead?” to “It’s back.  Inflation – the FEAR is real, but maybe the MONSTER isn’t?” (Page 2) “Sunday political shows: Biden officials craft inflation message” (Page 3) “For the inflation surge to be permanent, one has to believe the 25-year deflationary trend in durable goods is suddenly over” (Page 6) “Power shortages, a hidden water crisis, and a hard landing in China” (Page 7) “China’s factory inflation grows at record 13.5% in

Read More »