“Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the US.” (Page 2) European terms of trade collapsing despite sharply weakening EUR (Page 4) “US shale bosses tell Europe: ‘There’s no bailout coming.’” (Page 5) “These 15 data points are the latest amongst various others that support the shale quality degradation thesis.” (Page 6) “EU countries would be required to curb their power use by 5% during the

There is a belief among certain Europeans that a higher price of gold for settlement purposes would facilitate financing of oil imports, although the argument depends on assumptions regarding producers’ attitude towards gold as an asset which may not be valid. Adamant U.S. insistence on maintaining the present fixed official price is likely to create international conflict with the EC and may also lead to unilateral EC arrangements which would defeat our aims for the

“A few weeks like this and the European economy will just go into a full stop” – Belgian PM (Page 2) Key mechanics of the crescendo of “the scariest macro environment in our 27-year career” (Page 4) UK, Japan, EU, Canada plan stimulus measures to “fight energy-related inflation” (Page 7) UK scraps moratorium on fracking (Page 8) “Gazprom to shift gas contract with China to RUB, CNY from EUR” (Page 9) “Energy crisis is an

Morgan Stanley said it has reduced its net exposure to U.S. subprime debt — defined as the potential loss if all of the debt’s value were wiped out — to $6 billion as of October 31 from $10.4 billion as of August 31. -Reuters, 11/8/07 (10 months before financial system nearly collapsed) EU ENERGY MARGIN CALLS SEEN TOTALING AT LEAST $1.5 TRILLION -Bloomberg, 9/6/22 GOLDMAN SEES $2 TRILLION SURGE IN EUROPE ENERGY BILLS BY 2023

Chicago Fed white paper tells Powell at Jackson Hole that his choice is “high inflation” or “depression” (Page 2) NY Fed’s Williams: “We need to get interest rates above the expected rate of inflation…” (Page 5) “It’s been 109 days since a US company raised at least $25m in a traditional IPO, the longest drought in at least 20 years” (Page 7) “Powell: ‘Totality of the incoming data’ will determine policy response” (Page 9) “German

In this paper, we argue that the answer to these important questions hinges predominantly on the fiscal authority’s credibility in stabilizing a large fiscal imbalance. The central bank’s anti-inflation reputation, albeit important, is not decisive. … When fiscal imbalances are large and fiscal credibility wanes, it may become increasingly harder for the monetary authority to stabilize inflation around its desired target. If the monetary authority increases rates in response to high inflation, the economy enters