All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

“Warren Buffett metric” adjusted for US Federal debt surpasses 2000 Dot-Com levels for first time ever (FFTT, 4/21/26)

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market value divided by GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”     -Buffett Indicator Valuation Model, 12/31/25 [The Buffett Indicator] is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should

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Strains intensify in supply chains and western sovereign bond markets, as complacency reigns (FFTT, 4/14/26)

Fifty days of temporary elevated prices … for 50 years of not having an Iranian regime with a nuclear weapon, the American people, they are beginning to understand, thanks to President Trump, that there is no prosperity without security.     -Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, NBC’s “Meet the Press”, 3/22/26 When asked about whether the war in Iran would ultimately be good for bad for the US economy, Bessent said, “I think we will look back and

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“How Globalized Trade Led Britain to its Worst Defeat of the First World War” -Nicholas Lambert (FFTT, 4/7/26)

Now is our downhill phase.  You saw what happened just last night in Tel Aviv.  Meaning, because we hit the radars and the infrastructure, today, truly, Mr. Trump and Netanyahu are trapped in a slaughterhouse in the Persian Gulf. … The big mistake they made was that they came and designed a short-term war, but they didn’t realize this might turn into a long-term one. … They didn’t think for example the price of oil

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