All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

Not enough global balance sheet to absorb 2H23E effective net UST issuance, RRP or not (FFTT, 5/31/23)

In the deal reached on Sunday, they have not raised the debt limit to a certain level, but suspended it entirely until 2025.  This allows them to pay their bills until that date and know that the next fight over raising the ceiling will not interfere with the presidential election.     -BBC, 5/30/23 (via BB) Because the terrorist threat continues, the national emergency declared on September 14, 2001, and the powers and authorities adopted to deal

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Fed rate hikes appear to be driving higher inflation; when will consensus realize it? (FFTT, 5/24/23)

BULLARD: IF INFLATION IS NOT CONTROLLED THE FED WILL HAVE TO “DO A LOT MORE,” SHOULD ERR ON THE SIDE OF DOING MORE     -Bloomberg, 5/22/23 KASHKARI: IT MAY BE THAT WE HAVE TO GO NORTH OF 6%, BUT NOT CLEAR.     -Bloomberg, 5/22/23 The Fed has no choice but to backstop the banking system (even if it were to allow the banks to fail, it still would have to pay out retail depositors full value). As

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Mr. X: “US government, CRE, and VC’s capital needs could trigger a capital crunch in coming months.” (FFTT, 5/17/23)

Mr. X: I just got done reading the 5/10/23 edition of FFTT and wanted to reach out because it really crystallized an emerging view in my mind.  I think we could see a “square root” pattern in markets in coming months…basically, a whoosh down, followed by a rapid bounce back up to higher levels, likely due to what I would imagine would be rapid intervention by the Fed and other Central Banks. FFTT: Why do

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