If the nation is engaged in a shooting war and government does not want to increase taxes enough to pay for it, is it likely that the Fed will keep the money supply growing at a sedate 3% annual rate and watch interest rates move to banana republic levels as the credit markets are destroyed?  -Gary Shilling and Kiril Sokoloff, “Is Inflation Ending? Are You Ready?”, p. 14, 1983 We have a deficit [of oil]

Right now, the future is difficult to see, and the risks to both sides of our mandate have increased. -NY Fed President John Williams, 5/4/26 Chevron Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth said on Monday that ​physical shortages in oil supply would begin appearing around ‌the world because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global crude supply passes.  Economies will begin shrinking, first in Asia, as ​demand adjusts to reduced supply

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market value divided by GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”     -Buffett Indicator Valuation Model, 12/31/25 [The Buffett Indicator] is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should