All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

BOJ upsizes YCC into an inflation spike: Why a major crisis will likely follow if the Fed doesn’t follow the BOJ (FFTT, 4/20/22)

Do you think that sovereigns with a purely fiat currency will allow themselves to be bankrupted by the bond market raising yields on governments – yes or no?  Gold is saying “No.”-Question we asked in the 2/8/22 edition of FFTT The yield curve needs to be pegged, full stop.  Overtly or behind curtains.-Veteran macro hedge fund trader “DC”, 2/6/22 My friend, debt is the very essence of fiat.  As debt defaults, fiat is destroyed.  This

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 4/15/22)

“The QT timebomb is ticking.  When it goes off…we will move to the Yield Curve Control (YCC) end game.” (Page 2) US banks buying of USTs has bought time until the Fed is forced into YCC…but time may be running short (Page 4) “Weak yen hits Japanese demand for USTs as traders weigh up hedging costs” (Page 6) We expect US Treasury to upsize Treasury issuance alongside Fed QT in coming months (Page 8) US

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8.5% US CPI likely accelerates US Balance of Payments crisis; many investors still don’t see it (but gold seems to) (FFTT, 4/13/22)

The Treasury market may come under strain from the massive upcoming supply. There is reason to think the world’s most liquid market is actually fragile. Over the past 20 years, Treasuries outstanding rose 7-fold while daily cash volumes only rose from $370b to $620b. This suggests a market with steadily deteriorating liquidity, which means any potential tremors will be magnified…. The QT timebomb is ticking. When it goes off there will be emergency liquidity operations, and

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 4/8/22)

“US Initial Jobless Claims hit lowest level since November 1968” (Page 2) Formerly highly-dovish Fed Vice Chair gets quite hawkish, cites Paul Volcker (Page 4) Fed minutes: “Liquidity conditions became strained.  Market depth…deteriorated in UST, equity, & oil markets.” (Page 7) “If stocks don’t fall, the Fed needs to force them.” (Page 8) Various transportation sector indicators point to coming weakness/recession (Page 11) “President Putin’s full remarks at the oil-for-ruble announcement” (Page 14) “Kremlin warns

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Russia’s ruble-for-gas scheme = Putin’s golden trap (FFTT, 4/6/22)

President Vladimir Putin’s rouble payment scheme for natural gas is the prototype that the world’s largest country will extend to other major exports…”It is the prototype of the system,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russia’s Channel One state television about the rouble for gas payment system.  “I have no doubt that it will be extended to new groups of goods,” Peskov said. He gave no time frame for such a move.-“Kremlin warns ruble-for-gas scheme is

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 3/25/22)

“Markets are pushing the Fed into developing economy territory” (Page 2) “Every time the Fed stops QE or does QT, UST yields fall”…except this time.  A macro rule change? (Page 5) Long duration “bonds” with finite issuance and infinite face value are separating from long duration bonds with infinite issuance and finite face value (Page 8) “UST market liquidity is not scaling at the same pace as UST issuance and it’s not even close” (Page

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