Tariffs are like sanctions. Why does the US impose sanctions? Because of our financial might and the widespread use of the US dollar…With tariffs, everyone wants access to the US market. What are we trying to do?  We are trying to make China rebalance. China over-manufactures and they deprive the household sector. They under-consume. If you push them to rebalance, then the identity of that is more US manufacturing.      – Scott Bessent, 10/17/24,

The amount of rate hikes or demand destruction needed to stop inflation will bankrupt most sovereigns.       –FFTT, 6/9/22 Powell’s choice is NOT “inflation or deflation”, but rather, “How does he want to lose the long end of the UST curve – via rate hikes, or via rate cuts?”        – FFTT, via X, 2/2/24 And since he can prevent any loss of control over yields via QE and “programs”, the second order

If the nation is engaged in a shooting war and government does not want to increase taxes enough to pay for it, is it likely that the Fed will keep the money supply growing at a sedate 3% annual rate and watch interest rates move to banana republic levels as the credit markets are destroyed?  -Gary Shilling and Kiril Sokoloff, “Is Inflation Ending? Are You Ready?”, p. 14, 1983 We have a deficit [of oil]