All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

“A lot of disinflationary factors of the last 20-30 years are now going in reverse; when’s the ‘A-ha moment’?” (FFTT, 10/27/21)

We were recently interviewed on “MacroVoices”; key excerpts: I think it’s the beginning of a structural inflation that’s going to last many years. The reason I think it’s structural lasting for many years is I think if you look at a lot of the key factors that have been disinflationary over the last 20 years, 30 years, a lot of them are going in reverse. I think the single most important macro chart that I’m

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 10/22/21)

Hello- Hope you’re well.  This week’s edition of the 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently is attached.  Key points: “Six months ago, our businesses all thought this was transitory, now every business I know expects this to last into 2023 & 2024…every single one.” (Page 2) “Dollar optimism nearing excessive level?” (Page 4) “The global economy will fall into recession or worse in 2022, thanks to high energy prices.” (Page 7) “Bitcoin Lightning Network

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Fed’s choice: Hike rates into an energy-induced recession or cut rates into an inflation spike? (FFTT, 10/20/21)

The global economy will fall into recession or worse in 2022, thanks to high energy prices. Yet, no one seems to have noticed.  High coal, oil, and natural gas prices will bring about a prolonged global recession, if not a depression. To put this in context, oil prices would have to rise by $225 per barrel to have the same economic impact alone as that of the combined fuel cost increases. Fossil fuel use will be much

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 10/15/21)

US NFIB Small Business survey says General Business Conditions are recessionary (Page 2) Economic data are nearing recessionary as commodities appear to be breaking out (Page 4) “Energy is being used as a weapon, UK Defense Secretary warns” (Page 6) “Shale drillers may spend more, but don’t expect a production bonanza, even at $80 oil” (Page 8) “Putin defends cryptocurrencies amid global regulation push” (Page 10) “Biden to press climate change agenda on Wall Street”

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History is rhyming with early 2004 – will it trigger a multi-year bull run for commodities like in 2004? (FFTT, 10/13/21)

From 1946-1971, the USD was pegged to gold, first at $35 and then $42/oz.  In August 1971, that peg broke. From 1979-2004, the USD was “pseudo-pegged” to oil between $15-30/barrel– when oil got to $15, the Fed cut rates; when oil neared $30, the Fed hiked rates. “Peak Cheap Oil, Part 1” combined with Chinese oil demand and the Fed being forced to loosen policy into a commodity spike by the worsening subprime crisis caused

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 10/8/21)

“Pandemic-related staffing fluctuations” = BLS-speak for “The Great Resignation”? (Page 2) “This supply chain and labor shortage needs to get fixed or we are in for a rude awakening.” (Page 4) Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3q21 real GDP estimate falls again to just 1.3% (Page 6) “Digging deeper, Atlanta Fed is now at -1% for Q3 real final sales.  Could be an early recession sign.” (Page 8) “Once is happenstance.  Twice is coincidence.  Three times is

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