All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

Why the EU can’t sell USTs, how China already did, and why gold will be the vast majority of FX reserves (FFTT, 1/27/26)

This talk about Europe’s ability to wield its holdings of US Treasuries as a political tool is as divorced from reality as the talk about China’s ability to wield its holdings of US Treasuries as a political tool.  For all the huffing and puffing, Chinese holdings of US assets actually increased. This shouldn’t have been a surprise. If you run massive trade surpluses, you have no choice but to acquire foreign assets, and if you

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Multiple markets suggesting US and China began settling some trade deficits in gold (FFTT, 1/20/26)

There is a belief among certain Europeans that a higher price of gold for settlement purposes would facilitate financing of oil imports…For this purpose, it would be useful if the oil producers would invest some of their excess revenues in gold purchases from deficit EC [European Community] countries at close to a market price.  This would be an attractive proposal for European countries, and for the U.S., in that it would not involve future interest

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Trump/Powell clash is a critical signpost the US has run out of options for dealing with fiscal problems (FFTT, 1/13/26)

The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.      -Fed Chair Jerome Powell, 1/11/26 YELLEN: THIS IS THE ROAD TO BANANA REPUBLIC; I FIND IT EXTREMELY CHILLING FOR FED INDEPENDENCE     -Former Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair Janet Yellen, via CNBC, 1/12/26 The reported criminal inquiry into Federal Reserve Chair

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