All Macro-Thematic Trend Reports:

The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 8/26/22)

“Charts of forward pricing of German power contracts up 3000% in 5 years…are signs of market failure.” (Page 2) “Dutch city of The Hague seeks exemption from EU sanctions against Russia” (Page 5) “Russia seen floating long-term oil discounts amid price cap push” (Page 7) “US Deputy Treasury Secretary: Diminishing access to Russian crude from December 5 will lead to higher prices” (Page 10) “Huawei CEO warns of painful global slowdown and tells company to

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Eerie similarities between August 2019 & August 2022: The Fed’s about to “Break Stuff” … again. (FFTT, 8/22/22)

The U.S. Treasury expects to issue $433 billion in net marketable debt from July through September, about $274 billion more than it had estimated in April, according to figures released this week. The increase in borrowing is larger than analysts had forecast, and much of it is likely to come in the form of T-bills.-Bloomberg, 7/29/19 The US Treasury ramped up its estimate of federal borrowing for the three months through September…The Treasury Department boosted

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 8/12/22)

PLEASE NOTE: We will NOT publish any reports next week as we will be spending time with family and taking our two older boys to college.  We will resume our normal publishing schedule the following week.  Thank you for reading this edition of Tree Rings.  Have a great weekend!  LG  “US CPI Inflation decelerates more than forecast in July” (Page 2) Quarterly Fed Loan Officer survey saw significant tightening in Commercial and Industrial lending standards

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Consensus: Near-0% chance the Fed runs EM policy.  History: 98% chance Fed runs EM policy…but when? (FFTT, 8/10/22)

8.5% CPI and the Fed’s going to pivot. Just say it a few times and let that sink in for a minute. Surreal.-Complete Intelligence founder Tony Nash, via Twitter, 8/10/22 Play emerging market games (debt/GDP, deficit/GDP, foreign policy, economic policy, healthcare policy), win emerging market monetary policy prizes.-FFTT, responding to our friend Tony Nash’s comment above, 8/10/22 Recall in 3q20 that Hirschmann Capital, citing work by Reinhart and Rogoff on sovereign debt crises, made a

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The 10 Most Interesting Things We’ve Read Recently (FFTT, 8/5/22)

“Massive jobs surprise: US economy added 528,000 jobs in July” (Page 2) Leading economic indicators continue to worsen (Page 4) “US summer gasoline demand drops below pandemic levels” (Page 6) “US Treasury increases quarterly borrowing estimate by 143% to $444B from $182B…suggesting a drop-off in receipts” (Page 8) “Biden Administration was so frustrated with the economy and midterm outlook that they tried to fire Yellen last week” (Page 10) “Look how stocks have done since

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Did the G20 quietly agree to a “Bali Accord” to weaken the USD ahead of the midterm election? (FFTT, 8/3/22)

Look how stocks have done since the US Dollar peaked a couple weeks ago [on July 14.]  Also, BTC is up 16% and ETH over 40%.-J.C. Parets, 7/31/22 (via Twitter) Many investors have noticed that the USD peaked on July 14 and that stocks, BTC and ETH have rallied hard as the USD has fallen, but few seem to have connected the dots that G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors met on July 15-16.

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