Change of a long term or secular nature is usually gradual enough that it is obscured by the noise caused by short-term volatility. By the time secular trends are even acknowledged by the majority, they are generally obvious and mature.  In the early stages of a new secular paradigm, most are conditioned to hear only the short-term noise they have been conditioned to respond to by the prior existing secular condition.  Moreover, in a shift

What would America look like if it lost World War III?     -Niall Ferguson, 2/11/24 Much of Beijing’s current strategy toward the US was first laid down around 2002, when CCP leadership concluded that China faced an unprecedented 20-year “period of strategic opportunity.” During this time…China would have a long period when the “war on terror” would distract US leaders from China’s rise. … Chinese leadership concluded that this “period of strategic opportunity” would continue through

Change of a long term or secular nature is usually gradual enough that it is obscured by the noise caused by short-term volatility. By the time secular trends are even acknowledged by the majority, they are generally obvious and mature.  In the early stages of a new secular paradigm, most are conditioned to hear only the short-term noise they have been conditioned to respond to by the prior existing secular condition.  Moreover, in a shift