Fitch forecasts the 2026 GG deficit will widen to 7.4% of GDP in 2026 from 6.8% in 2025, driven by One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax cuts and USD100 billion in tariff rebates as of July 2026. GG deficits, forecasted at 7.4% of GDP in 2027, will remain the highest in the ‘AA’ category, partly reflecting higher military expenditures, and interest costs. Fiscal pressures will increase as Medicare and Social Security expenditures expand by nearly

“We will do whatever it takes to support them in a way that helps the American economy, the American taxpayer,” Bessent said in an interview on CNBC two days after confirming Treasury had joined Japan’s finance authorities in an intervention to prop up the yen.  -Reuters, 8/4/26 Wall Street traders and strategists say US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is sending fresh signals that he’s eager to keep bond yields from spiking higher.  First, he staged the US’s first currency

PLEASE NOTE: Next week we will not publish as we will be on vacation with our family.  We will return to our normal publishing schedule the following week. 

Real yields on 10y USTs have hit the highest level since 2023. -Lisa Abramowicz, Bloomberg, 7/22/26 … if global real interest rates returned tomorrow to their historical average of roughly 2%, given the existing level of US government debt and large continuing projected deficits, the US would likely experience an immediate fiscal dominance problem. – St. Louis Fed white paper by Charles Calomiris, 6/2/23 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finds himself in a place no central