US shale oil has been 90% of global oil production growth over the past decade.     -Enverus, via Bloomberg, 2023 Oil and gas groups spend $500bn a year ‘to stand still’ as fields decline, says IEA     -Financial Times, 9/16/25 Rapid declines from horizontal wells require more drilling to sustain production     -EIA report headline, 11/5/25 (via CG) Just two years ago, the International Energy Agency unequivocally said that fossil-fuel demand would peak before the end of this

Hope you are well.  Attached above is this week’s edition of FFTT.  This week’s report is a 33-slide Power Point presentation that can be read in 16-18 minutes. The title and theme of this deck: Take the “over” on how long it will take to reshore the US industrial base, and on how inflationary it will be. 

Demand for repo financing continues to grow rapidly from the increasing fiscal deficit, while the supply of repo financing can only keep up with the help of the Fed. Stable repo rates would ultimately require persistent Fed balance sheet expansion and effectively cede control of its balance sheet size to the fiscal authorities… The end of QT is coming soon, and further growth in the Fed’s balance sheet will necessarily follow shortly.     -Former NY Fed