Transcript of FFTT conversation with Grant Williams, with chts added for context
Hope you’re well. Attached above is this week’s edition of FFTT. In lieu of our usual FFTT, wanted to share our transcript of a lengthy conversation we had last week with Grant Williams and The Investors’ Podcast, as it touches on and reviews a number of key issues we have been discussing, with added color from Grant and TIP.
We have added in some key charts for context as well. This report is 25-pages long and is a 25-30 minute read.
>>> Transcript of recent FFTT conversation with Grant Williams & The Investors’ Podcast, with charts added <<<
* If the US is going to be in a Great Power Competition with China, a lot of the rules of geopolitics and finance may begin shifting back to Cold War-type market rules, even as many market participants are still using a post-Cold War lens to evaluate markets. (Pages 2-4)
* We don’t think oil can go crazy on the upside as long as China’s moving the marginal oil barrel from being priced in USD to being priced in CNY. (Pages 5-6)
* Overall USD strength has been surprising given Fed balance sheet expansion; recent relative USD weakness has been surprising given Fed tapering of UST buying & massive Treasury TGA increase (Pages 6-7)
* For the first time ever, the Fed’s balance sheet growth has exceeded the total tax receipts of the Treasury over the prior 12-month period, and the “Venezuela-ization” of US markets (Pages 8-10)
* If globalization was disinflationary for goods and labor prices, shouldn’t de-globalization and a “Great Power Competition” between the US and China be inflationary? (Pages 18-20)
* Has the US crossed the Rubicon as it relates to Universal Basic Income (UBI)? (Pages 21-23)
Thank you for reading this edition of FFTT. LG
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